Signs of Decline in LSMs Recovery - Tomes

[OBW]

Originally Posted by Cassidy

750 is a small number... and so is 3000 compared to the larger context. The discussion is about growth rate not percentage against the whole.

My point is that growth rate is meaningless when you start at something that is statistically insignificant relative to zero.

Statistics is not meaningful when the increments are not statistically significant.

Sort of like the problem of whether medication X has a statistically significant effect on recovery from illness Y. If you have a difference of 4, it is irrelevant if the total in the study is 1,000. But at the other end, if you only have a study of 15, 4 is significant. But because of the insignificant size of the sample, a change of 4 becomes difficult to isolate from all kinds of anomalies because the distribution of 15 is likely too skewed to be a reasonable base.

If you have a population of 1M and you already have 1/2 of them, getting a 50% increase is a major thing. Getting even 1% is a major thing.

But if you only have 750 to start with, adding another 3 times to it (to 3,000) is major when viewed from where you were, but only 0.006% growth when looking at the pie from which you have been eating.

Given that there were every bit as many people in the group in Europe many years ago, as someone else has pointed out, they have gotten nowhere. And an increase of 300% (3X), while comparatively large when isolated from the rest of the world, it is small. (A am not quibbling with the 4X growth statement except that I just can't keep repeating it. 1X of those 4X were already there. The growth is 3X. The number is 4 times the previous number, but the amount of growth is 3X. No, that is not insignificant. But it is not 4X.)

Funny how the LRC is out to take over the world yet the parts of the world in which they already reside hardly knows they are there. Not much of a takeover.

Cassidy, I have already pointed out that the article by Nigel does not really say much since there is insufficient information and true comparability, coupled with uncertain causation to make any real assertions. But among the possible results, a decline in interest in the LRC could be a cause. And having 3X more people in Europe does not stand in the way of that result (or any result) because the numerical insignificance of the group makes analysis nearly meaningless.