Reports Of Religion's Extinction Exaggerated

Admin · 03-26-2011, 07:20 AM

REPORTS OF RELIGION’S EXTINCTION EXAGGERATED

Skepticism should greet a recent scientific study by three science professors presented at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, Texas. The paper, entitled “A mathematical model of social group competition with application to the growth of religious non-affiliation,” might seem dull. Yet, unlike most scientific papers, this one generated news headlines around the globe, including “Researchers predict the End of Religion” (Forbes), “Physics predicts end of religion” (BBC) and “Canadians losing faith as religion faces extinction” (Montreal Gazette). Canada was among the nations where religion’s extinction was predicted, so this study is relevant to us. Is this bold prediction justified? Is religion really dying out in Canada?

Casual observation seems to support this study. We see small groups of communicants huddled together for warmth in the vestries of cavernous Catholic and Anglican cathedrals. German Lutheran and Greek Orthodox churches are predominantly grey-haired and elderly. The United Church of Canada continues to down-size and combine congregations. Yet a wider glance uncovers counter-veiling trends—Chinese and Korean churches have sprung up like weeds in industrial units around Toronto. Diverse ethnic groups often time-share church facilities; English Calvinists share with Korean Presbyterians or Tamal Pentecostals. A $40M Hindu temple recently opened in Brampton. The minarets of Muslim mosques now piece the skyline in Markham and Mississauga. The “Toronto Blessing” was a Pentecostal phenomenon drawing visitors from around the globe. All these signs seem indicative of religion’s growth, rather than its demise. Meanwhile synagogues remain; the Jewish minority is growing in step with the population, showing no signs of assimilation or extinction.

This study focuses on the rising trend of no religious affiliation in the countries studied. This pattern holds in Canada. Census data shows the percentage of Canadians reporting “no religion” grew from 4% in 1971 to 16% in 2001. The science professors pooled data from nine western countries and then fit curves displaying exponential growth of the “no religion” category. Extrapolating these curves forward yields the prediction of inevitable extinction—decades from now, if current trends continue, 100% of Canadians will report “no religion.” The obvious Achilles' heel is the statement, “if current trends continue.” Moreover, the study’s focus on population percentages in never justified. When accessing the risk of animal extinction we look at the number of breeding pairs, not the percentage. Canada’s Jewish community represents 1% of the population. If this community grows slower than the overall population, does this imply extinction? Not at all; it’s still growing. 4,000 years of Jewish history have proven many extinction prophecies and projects wrong. This shows a religious minority (even a shrinking minority in percentage terms) can survive and thrive. The percentage of Canadians identified as “Christian” declined from 83% in 1991 to 77% in 2001. Does that imply extinction? No, the absolute number increased from 22.5 Million to 22.9M.

These scientists’ predictions conflict with other projections. Statistics Canada expects “the share with no religion would rise from about 17% to 21%,” by 2031. [Stats Can: The Daily, Tues, March 9, 2010] Their data shows Canada’s “no religion” category has been increasing, but at a decreasing rate. In the 1970s Canadians with no religious affiliation grew at 7% per year (doubling from 0.9M in 1971 to 1.8M in 1981). In the 1990s they grew at only 3.7% per year (from 3.4M in 1991 to 4.9M in 2001). Over the past 30 years each decade shows a slowing growth rate. Slowing growth suggests the “no religion” category will peak at some future date below 100%. Religion’s extinction is not on the cards.

A Jewish proverb says “prophecy is for fools and children.” Statistics can be coaxed to tell contradictory tales. Take for example the growth of Islam in Canada. The 1971 Census found 33,000 Muslims in Canada, only 0.15% of the population. This number grew by 11% during the 1970s to 100,000 by 1981. By 2006 Canada’s Muslim population numbered 784,000 (2.4% of the population). The growth of Muslims has exceeded the overall population. Statistics Canada forecasts that by 2031 the number of Muslims will reach 3M (7% of Canada’s population). Naïve forward projections imply a majority of Canadians will be Muslim at some future date. Clearly we have a contradiction. Both the “no religion” and the “Muslim” categories have been growing faster than Canada’s overall population. Projecting one trend forwards implies the extinction of religion; extrapolating the other predicts a Muslim majority! Both these forecasts cannot come true; I expect neither prediction to be fulfilled. Perhaps the science professors’ next research topic should be the growth of Islam in western countries! That should generate some sensational headlines!

Nigel Tomes
The author taught economics at the UWO from 1977 to 1986, where he researched in religion and earnings in Canada. Since 1986 he has ministered at the Church in Toronto.

03-26-2011, 07:20 AM	#1
Admin He came not to be Served but Serve Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 39	Reports Of Religion's Extinction Exaggerated REPORTS OF RELIGION’S EXTINCTION EXAGGERATED Skepticism should greet a recent scientific study by three science professors presented at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, Texas. The paper, entitled “A mathematical model of social group competition with application to the growth of religious non-affiliation,” might seem dull. Yet, unlike most scientific papers, this one generated news headlines around the globe, including “Researchers predict the End of Religion” (Forbes), “Physics predicts end of religion” (BBC) and “Canadians losing faith as religion faces extinction” (Montreal Gazette). Canada was among the nations where religion’s extinction was predicted, so this study is relevant to us. Is this bold prediction justified? Is religion really dying out in Canada? Casual observation seems to support this study. We see small groups of communicants huddled together for warmth in the vestries of cavernous Catholic and Anglican cathedrals. German Lutheran and Greek Orthodox churches are predominantly grey-haired and elderly. The United Church of Canada continues to down-size and combine congregations. Yet a wider glance uncovers counter-veiling trends—Chinese and Korean churches have sprung up like weeds in industrial units around Toronto. Diverse ethnic groups often time-share church facilities; English Calvinists share with Korean Presbyterians or Tamal Pentecostals. A $40M Hindu temple recently opened in Brampton. The minarets of Muslim mosques now piece the skyline in Markham and Mississauga. The “Toronto Blessing” was a Pentecostal phenomenon drawing visitors from around the globe. All these signs seem indicative of religion’s growth, rather than its demise. Meanwhile synagogues remain; the Jewish minority is growing in step with the population, showing no signs of assimilation or extinction. This study focuses on the rising trend of no religious affiliation in the countries studied. This pattern holds in Canada. Census data shows the percentage of Canadians reporting “no religion” grew from 4% in 1971 to 16% in 2001. The science professors pooled data from nine western countries and then fit curves displaying exponential growth of the “no religion” category. Extrapolating these curves forward yields the prediction of inevitable extinction—decades from now, if current trends continue, 100% of Canadians will report “no religion.” The obvious Achilles' heel is the statement, “if current trends continue.” Moreover, the study’s focus on population percentages in never justified. When accessing the risk of animal extinction we look at the number of breeding pairs, not the percentage. Canada’s Jewish community represents 1% of the population. If this community grows slower than the overall population, does this imply extinction? Not at all; it’s still growing. 4,000 years of Jewish history have proven many extinction prophecies and projects wrong. This shows a religious minority (even a shrinking minority in percentage terms) can survive and thrive. The percentage of Canadians identified as “Christian” declined from 83% in 1991 to 77% in 2001. Does that imply extinction? No, the absolute number increased from 22.5 Million to 22.9M. These scientists’ predictions conflict with other projections. Statistics Canada expects “the share with no religion would rise from about 17% to 21%,” by 2031. [Stats Can: The Daily, Tues, March 9, 2010] Their data shows Canada’s “no religion” category has been increasing, but at a decreasing rate. In the 1970s Canadians with no religious affiliation grew at 7% per year (doubling from 0.9M in 1971 to 1.8M in 1981). In the 1990s they grew at only 3.7% per year (from 3.4M in 1991 to 4.9M in 2001). Over the past 30 years each decade shows a slowing growth rate. Slowing growth suggests the “no religion” category will peak at some future date below 100%. Religion’s extinction is not on the cards. A Jewish proverb says “prophecy is for fools and children.” Statistics can be coaxed to tell contradictory tales. Take for example the growth of Islam in Canada. The 1971 Census found 33,000 Muslims in Canada, only 0.15% of the population. This number grew by 11% during the 1970s to 100,000 by 1981. By 2006 Canada’s Muslim population numbered 784,000 (2.4% of the population). The growth of Muslims has exceeded the overall population. Statistics Canada forecasts that by 2031 the number of Muslims will reach 3M (7% of Canada’s population). Naïve forward projections imply a majority of Canadians will be Muslim at some future date. Clearly we have a contradiction. Both the “no religion” and the “Muslim” categories have been growing faster than Canada’s overall population. Projecting one trend forwards implies the extinction of religion; extrapolating the other predicts a Muslim majority! Both these forecasts cannot come true; I expect neither prediction to be fulfilled. Perhaps the science professors’ next research topic should be the growth of Islam in western countries! That should generate some sensational headlines! Nigel Tomes The author taught economics at the UWO from 1977 to 1986, where he researched in religion and earnings in Canada. Since 1986 he has ministered at the Church in Toronto.