Numbers 1:1 - The Numbers Don't Lie

[UntoHim]

Originally Posted by UntoHim

And they wonder why their little religious sect is dying right before their eyes.

Originally Posted by rayliotta

It's dying? Really? That's news to me...

Ah I knew I couldn't get away with that exaggerated superlative

Actually it's been my observation that the Local Church of Witness Lee here in America is dying, at least if one is to take into account the dwindling numbers. I know that a number of Local Churches here in America have less than half the attending members as they did, say 20 or 30 year ago. There are exceptions, one I believe might be in Austin. Anyway, you can be sure that if the numbers were increasing we would hear about it from the folks there on La Palma in Anaheim. The fact that they are secretive about their numbers tells the story.

Of course Taiwan would probably be a totally different story, although I understand there have been a number of splits and some of those churches may not consider themselves as in the LSM fold.

In any event, the main reason I say "dying" is not just the numbers, it is through my direct observation of the bi-annual training messages and some conferences headed up by the "blended" brothers. As I just noted, the training meetings are nothing but some guy reading an outline and going over the points. Same goes for the conferences. There is nothing new, nothing fresh. These people are too beat down and too afraid to seek after God and his Kingdom apart from the ministry of a man who has been dead and buried for about 15 years now. It's actually quite sad and I pray for them all the time.

[rayliotta]

As far as the numbers go, all I know is that simply hasn't been my observation. Also, there are places that today have 50-100+ regular attendees, complete with a meeting hall and bookroom, where n the 90's there was no LSM church (or previously had only been a few families meeting).

The number of full-time trainings is up to at least 7-8 worldwide. The FTTA has more trainees now than in the past.

As far as the rehasing goes, well...I guess there's two ways to look at that. On the hand, they're rehashing so, they're kinda dying. On the other hand (two sides to everything, remember), the fact that they're still chuggin' along after 15 years of rehasing...well, what does that tell you?

[rayliotta]

Maybe the most important thing, as it relates to the Recovery in the U.S. and Canada, is simply that their recruiting presence on college campuses is far more far-reaching than in the past.

[UntoHim]

Ray,
First of all, I am only aware of (and concerned with) the Local Churches in North America. It’s not that I don’t care for all the dear believers in other parts of the world, it’s just that is all I have experience with and frankly it’s all I have time for!

Maybe you get around a lot more than I do, but I must tell you I have made a rather concerted effort to find out the raw numbers and I think they are down…considerably down…from the heyday back in the 70s and early 80s. Yes, there may be a city here or there that now has a church of 50-100 members where only a few existed before, but I am talking about the USA and Canada in general. If the Local Church was growing, even slightly, in these two countries you can be sure they would be tooting their horn big time. During the heyday years they were not shy at all about giving out some raw numbers. Now it is like pulling teeth. Up to 5 or 6 years ago they were publishing a church directory (of sorts), complete with the names of the elders, phone numbers and even email address. My understanding is that this directory has been discontinued. Why? The main reason is that don’t want nosy outsiders (and probably people like me) trying to figure out an accurate number of regular attending members.

As to the FTTA, it is my understanding that there are a considerable number of foreign “students” (mostly Asian of course). Many of them come to the USA for college and end up staying for the FTTA. Again, I can’t be sure of this, but I have sources that have told me that this is the case. I can, however, give you a concrete example. I live in a major metropolitan area of several million people. There is a Local Church here. As far as I know they have only sent ONE, yes, that is ONE American brother to the FTTA in the last few years. There may be a sister as well but I can’t confirm that for now. Maybe this is just a little co-wink-ee-dink, but I don’t think so.

Now as far as the college presence, I think you may be confusing quantity with quality. As far as the college campus work is concerned, the Local Church is a mile wide and an inch deep. In the recent past, they have been targeting “key cities”….almost all of them college towns. This campaign has been a dismal failure so far. Why? I can tell you why. It is because God is doing something among the young people in America again. Many are moving past and beyond their baby-boomer parent’s milk-toast Christian religion. They are seeking truth. Unlike most of the kids of my generation, they can tell truth from religious dogma, and they have some recent history to help them. Anyway, I think the vast majority of kids nowadays can sniff out the Local Church religion in a heartbeat. They will reject such religion and go about their business in search for the truth.

[rayliotta]

Originally Posted by UntoHim

...I must tell you I have made a rather concerted effort to find out the raw numbers and I think they are down…considerably down…from the heyday back in the 70s and early 80s. Yes, there may be a city here or there that now has a church of 50-100 members where only a few existed before, but I am talking about the USA and Canada in general...

Now as far as the college presence, I think you may be confusing quantity with quality. As far as the college campus work is concerned, the Local Church is a mile wide and an inch deep. In the recent past, they have been targeting “key cities”….almost all of them college towns. This campaign has been a dismal failure so far. Why? I can tell you why. It is because God is doing something among the young people in America again. Many are moving past and beyond their baby-boomer parent’s milk-toast Christian religion. They are seeking truth. Unlike most of the kids of my generation, they can tell truth from religious dogma, and they have some recent history to help them. Anyway, I think the vast majority of kids nowadays can sniff out the Local Church religion in a heartbeat. They will reject such religion and go about their business in search for the truth.

I guess I should have been more clear. I was talking specifically about the U.S. and Canada. I mentioned the trainings around the world, because I think it indicates that the increase in FTTA enrollment is actually home-grown, so to speak. Personally, I've known many "American" trainees, but maybe that's just a "co-wink-ee-dink".

Not to nitpick, but when you say the numbers are way down from the 70's and early 80's, aren't you really talking about the decline in membership that happened in the 80's? Not that that's irrelevant, it's just that it's...25 years ago. The simple fact that they've chugged along successfully for a generation "post-fermentation", to me that speaks volumes. Even if they've never grown back to "pre-fermentation" numbers.

As for the campus work. The "Austin apprenticeship" started in the late 90's. Personally, I've known many people who "came off the campuses", many of whom went on to the training. Obviously, we're talking about different situations in different places. But the "key cities" campaign you mentioned, didn't that just start in the last 3-4 years? That would seem way too early to judge...but maybe we're talking about two different things.

[ZNPaaneah]

Originally Posted by rayliotta

I guess I should have been more clear. I was talking specifically about the U.S. and Canada. I mentioned the trainings around the world, because I think it indicates that the increase in FTTA enrollment is actually home-grown, so to speak. Personally, I've known many "American" trainees, but maybe that's just a "co-wink-ee-dink".

Not to nitpick, but when you say the numbers are way down from the 70's and early 80's, aren't you really talking about the decline in membership that happened in the 80's? Not that that's irrelevant, it's just that it's...25 years ago. The simple fact that they've chugged along successfully for a generation "post-fermentation", to me that speaks volumes. Even if they've never grown back to "pre-fermentation" numbers.

As for the campus work. The "Austin apprenticeship" started in the late 90's. Personally, I've known many people who "came off the campuses", many of whom went on to the training. Obviously, we're talking about different situations in different places. But the "key cities" campaign you mentioned, didn't that just start in the last 3-4 years? That would seem way too early to judge...but maybe we're talking about two different things.

If they don't post numbers wouldn't construction be a reasonable way to look for growth? Odessa grew from a home meeting, to renting a conference room at a hotel to renting a warehouse with parking. Each move represented growth in numbers. They essentially doubled in size twice during my 5 years there, going from 25 to 100. By the time I left there was a small meeting going on in Midland. And that would have been in the 80s. In Houston they filled the hall right up to the Irving construction when 100 plus saints moved from Houston to Irving. A second way to deal with growth is migration. Over the year and a half of the construction it appeared that Houston gained that 100 right back, so that would have been about 30-50% growth in 18 months.

So wouldn't the evidence of growth be an increase in the number of churches, and an increase in the seating capacity of the halls.

Now according to Sun Tzu you can know the condition of an entire army based on the condition of a single soldier. The modern analogy is that you only need to look at a representative set of around 5% to get a good idea of the condition as a whole.

1. I can tell you that NYC did not grow in numbers at all in the 90s. They kept weekly records. As an usher one of my jobs was to count the total number of saints sitting in the seats Sunday morning about halfway through the meeting and record that in a book. Also, NYC has not been involved in any migrations to my knowledge during the 90s. That is not to say that saints haven't moved in and out of the church, but a significant subset of the members did not migrate to a new locale to start a meeting. And this is very telling. Already the saints in come from a wide area in which it would be much more convenient to have more localized meetings. They might argue that they have had growth in the spanish speaking portion of saints, but that, to my impression, has only helped the overall numbers remain constant.

2. My daughter went to school in Buffalo and met a group of loosely affiliated LRC saints. It is like a home meeting of about 25, primarily college kids. The brother leading them knew me from the FTTT, and he does not push LSM at all.

So perhaps if others could contribute their knowledge of their locale we could put together enough anecdotal evidence to suggest whether LRC is growing, stagnant or in decline.