[Cal]

Ten or so years ago, pundits were fretting about "peak oil," the idea that all the "easy oil" had been discovered, so availability was bound to decrease and prices to increase. They seemed right. Oil hit $170 a barrel a few years later and gasoline hit $4 a gallon and higher.

Then they found a way to get to shale oil. Oil is now around $50 a barrel again. And the shale oil-rich Dakotas have been turned into a boom area. When I moved back to Texas in 2004, gas here was about $1.68 a gallon. Fifteen years later you can get it for $1.85 a gallon. Based on 2% normal inflation per year, it should be $2.26 a gallon. The peak oil talk is over.

Next is sands oil. Western Canada is said to have more oil in its sands that Saudi Arabia. Harder to extract, but they will find a away.

I've found being a long-term prophet of doom is a poor bet.