Thanks, Trapped, for this post and question.
I've only lurked on the forum for a long time, but this question you pose is quite central for all Christians, especially those who have or are considering emerging from the LC. So, you bring my out of the woodwork to post a rambling comment...
One of my favorite quotes is from Oliver Wendell Holmes: "Certainty always leads to violence."
An off-shoot of that might be: "The quest for certainty is a lie."
We are messy beings. God's wisdom is multifarious and His grace is varied. So, we learn to trust Him.
That said, how do we trust Him? How do we know? This is your question. This is my question.
Peter was "certain" when he tried to prevent Jesus' arrest. Acting "on behalf of God" he almost thwarted God's will that Jesus be crucified.
Paul was "bound by the Spirit to go to Jerusalem." Yet the brothers exhorted Paul "in Spirit" NOT to go to Jerusalem.
Is the Spirit schizophrenic?
I don't think we can know. The source of paralysis is the WRONG assumption that WE CAN KNOW.
So what do we do? I don't know. But I will echo what has been said here by others, like OBW, Ohio, Aron, and Nell: just take a step in a direction that feels right, or what you "want" to do.
I haven't had God speak to me from the heavens, but I do know the sensation of Him saying "NO!"
Take a step forward in one way or another. Know you aren't certainly right, but still commit to your move. And then pray.
I don't know what else we can do. Anything else is dishonest and based on untrue premises about how God works.
Much grace to you.
One of my favorite verses is "God arranges men's seasons that they might grope after Him."
If you do nothing else, grope in the darkness. But don't stay put.
Thoughts?